| 13 | 0 | 20,390 | 0 | 33,910 | 1.66 | 27,128 | 5,132.62 |
| 14 | 0 | 13,440 | 0 | 20,990 | 1.56 | 16,792 | 3,177.05 |
| 15 | 0 | 11,570 | 0 | 17,000 | 1.47 | 13,600 | 2,573.12 |
| Mean | 0.333 | 16,487 | 267 | 24,139 | 1 | 19,310.93 | 3,653.63 |
| Standard deviation | 0.488 | 7,219 | 11458 | 10,818 | 0.2540044 | 8,654.15 | 1,637.37 |
| Attendance numbers represent customers who paid for their seat and attended the performance. Rain is 1 measurable anticipation and 0 if not. | Range | ||||||
| Min | 5,208 | 985.35 | |||||
| Max | 34,864 | 6,596.27 | |||||
Probability of Saturday over Friday attendees shows that the People on Saturday were relatively more than the event on Friday that’s why ratio is greater than 1 even after the rainfall however, ratio is relatively low in year 8. We have taken into consideration in our analysis the year 8 and year 9 because this will provide a better forecasting results as these data sets show the number of attendees on Friday without rain and number of attendees on Saturday after raining and ratio turns out to less than 1 in year 8 and approximately 1 in year 9.
Moreover, possible attendees in rain on Saturday have been calculated by taking out 80% probability in each case which is multiplied by the 18.92% for calculating Possible DVD audience on Saturday which has reached to the minimum range of Saturday’s attendees even after rain are 5208 people whereas maximum attendees on Saturday are assumed to be 34864 however, people willing to purchase DVDs range from minimum 985 people to 6526 people.
Lac Leman Festival (A) Harvard Case Solution & Analysis
Statistical Analysis:
To make it more understandable, statistical analysis has been performed which is Descriptive Statistics and Regression Analysis.
Descriptive Statistics:
| Descriptive Statistics | |||
| Possible Attendees in Rain | Possible DVD Audience | ||
| Mean | 19,310.93 | Mean | 3,653.63 |
| Standard Error | 2,234.49 | Standard Error | 422.77 |
| Median | 16,792.00 | Median | 3,177.05 |
| Standard Deviation | 8,654.15 | Standard Deviation | 1,637.37 |
| Sample Variance | 74,894,307.35 | Sample Variance | 2,680,964.56 |
| Kurtosis | (0.93) | Kurtosis | (0.93) |
| Skewness | 0.31 | Skewness | 0.31 |
| Range | 29,656.00 | Range | 5,610.92 |
| Minimum | 5,208.00 | Minimum | 985.35 |
| Maximum | 34,864.00 | Maximum | 6,596.27 |
| Sum | 289,664.00 | Sum | 54,804.43 |
| Count | 15.00 | Count | 15.00 |
| Confidence Level (95.0%) | 4,792.51 | Confidence Level (95.0%) | 906.74 |
This table shows the average possible attendees in rain would be around 19311 people which will deviate with a value of around 8654 people which has the minimum value of around 5208 attendees whereas people who are ready to attend Saturday’s event even after rain would be maximum of 34864 people from the last 15 years data. However, Possible DVD Audience is around 3654 people on average which is varying with a value of around 1637 people which consists of the minimum people attending the show and willing to buy DVD as well are around 985 people whereas maximum people willing might be around 6596 people who may purchase the DVD but the calculation has been done by taking into account the current Friday’s attendees by using the probability of Saturday over Friday along with the rain probability which is discussed in the table below.
Regression Analysis:
| Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 1.00 |
| R Square | 1.00 |
| Adjusted R Square | 1.00 |
| Standard Error | 0.00 |
| Observations | 15.00 |
This table shows the regression analysis of the dependent variable which is assumed as Possible DVD Audience in rain for the last 15 years whereas independent variable is Audience attending the Saturday’s show in last 15 years.
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