Using Scenarios to Plan for Tomorrow Case Solution And Analysis, HBR Case Study Solution & Analysis of Harvard Case Studies

While business planning often use forecasting to evaluate the results in the future point in time, according to the author of forecasting has serious limitations and is not a reliable guide for the long-term future. Instead, he recommends scenario planning as a way to provide an excellent future in order to help managers see the business environment more clearly and better strategic choices. Using extensive experience Shell in this area, he outlines a simple seven-step scenario planning processes that managers can use for a day or two half-day seminars. Doing this will lead to organizational learning, challenge assumptions, executive and perspectives of management and help everyone to see the business environment in which they work as a complex, nonlinear system. This article includes an interview with Angela Wilkinson, who spent decades as a leading member of the international team of script Shell. She shares her personal experience of using scenario planning, suggesting who and how much should be in the team, and as part of the scenario should be reviewed. "In today's world of uncertainty, it is not enough just to analyze the situation," she says, referring to the new approach she calls "the future together." "Hide
by Mike Rosenberg Source: IESE-Insight Magazine 8 pages. Publication Date: March 15, 2012. Prod. #: IIR070-PDF-ENG